Saturday, March 1, 2014

86TH OSCARS: PREDICTIONS & SUBMISSIONS


The 86th Academy Awards are tomorrow and in preparation/anticipation I will be posting related items, including and especially the first ever Film Tome Awards. I am taking full advantage of this opportunity to wrap up my coverage of the year in film that was 2013.


First and foremost I am proud to present my annual Oscar Predictions and Submissions. Like many sites I'll be taking a Will Win / Should Win / Should Be Nominated approach. Now's a good time to remind you to check out the lovely Snubbed 2014 - An Oscar Tribute edited by Nick Bosworth. I've decide to limit myself to just three (at most) shout-outs in the "Should Be Nominated" section. It certainly makes it more difficult but having a mere five nominations for any given category is tough love too. I will not be going so far as to say what shouldn't be nominated. In the case that a "Should Be Nominated" film is what I feel should win that particular category outright you will see it highlighted in red.

Curator's Note: More than ever I'm aware and acknowledging that predicting the Oscars more or less comes down to guessing what white, middle-aged (or beyond) men in Hollywood favored last year in Hollywood. It's frivolous and trivial yet established and traditional. It's "the biggest night in town" but it should not be the end-all for cinematic prestige. Don't get me wrong, it's an exciting evening and an important one for many, but it ultimately only covers and considers a mere fraction of the movies made in any given year. I'll continue to predict the winners in a post like this each year but I am not going to dedicate more time or thought than that. Ultimately, I have little to offer or prove in these matters. Oh, and getting fumed about the results is even more a waste of energies. Why can't we accept the winners as mere facts and simply share our personal preferences?


Without further ado, here's my Oscar predictions and submissions:


Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street


Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Be Nominated:
Before Midnight
The Great Beauty
The Place Beyond the Pines

* * *


Best Actor
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)


Will Win: Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Should Be Nominated:
Toni Servillo (The Great Beauty)
Mads Mikkelsen (The Hunt)
Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)

* * *


Best Actress
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)


Will Win: Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Should Win: Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Should Be Nominated:
Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)
Adèle Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)
Brie Larsen (Short Term 12)

* * *


Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)


Will Win: Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Should Win: Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Should Be Nominated:
Matthew McConaughey (Mud)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Prisoners)
James Franco (Spring Breakers)

* * *


Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)


Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Should Win: Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave)
Should Be Nominated:
Léa Seydoux (Blue is the Warmest Color)
Scarlett Johansson (Her)
Kristen Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives)

* * *


Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)


Will Win: Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity)
Should Win: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
Should Be Nominated:
Paolo Sorrentino (The Great Beauty)
Jia Zhang Ke (A Touch of Sin)
Hayao Miyazaki (The Wind Rises)

* * *


Best Adapted Screenplay
John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)

Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater (Before Midnight
)
Terence Winter (The Wolf of Wall Street
)
Billy Ray (Captain Phillips)

Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope (Philomena)


Will Win: John Ridley (12 Years a Slave)
Should Win: Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater (Before Midnight
)

* * *


Best Original Screenplay
David O. Russell and Eric Singer (American Hustle)
Bob Nelson (Nebraska)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack (Dallas Buyers Club)
Woody Allen (Blue Jasmine)


Will Win: Spike Jonze (Her)
Should Win: Spike Jonze (Her)
Should Be Nominated:
Jia Zhangke (A Touch of Sin)
Paolo Sorrentino & Umberto Contarello (The Great Beauty)
Hayao Miyazaki (The Wind Rises)

* * *

Best Foreign Film
Denmark, The Hunt
Belgium, The Broken Circle Breakdown
Italy, The Great Beauty
Palestine, Omar
Cambodia, The Missing Picture


Will Win: The Great Beauty
Should Win: The Great Beauty
Should Be Nominated:
A Touch of Sin
New World
The Wind Rises

* * *


Best Documentary Feature
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
Dirty Wars
The Square
Cutie and the Boxer


Will Win: The Act of Killing
Should Win: The Act of Killing
Should Be Nominated:
The Machine Which Makes Everything Disappear
Leviathan
Stories We Tell

* * *


Best Animated Feature
The Wind Rises
Frozen
Despicable Me 2
The Croods
Ernest & Celestine


Will Win: Frozen
Should Win: The Wind Rises
Should Be Nominated:
From Up On Poppy Hill
Monsters University

* * *


Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave


Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: American Hustle
Should Be Nominated:
The Great Beauty
The World’s End
The Wolf of Wall Street

* * *


Best Song
"Happy" (Despicable Me 2)
"Let It Go" (Frozen)
"The Moon Song" (Her)
"Ordinary Love" (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)


Will Win: "Let It Go" (Frozen)
Should Win: "Let It Go" (Frozen)

* * *


Best Original Score
John Williams (The Book Thief)
Steven Price (Gravity)
Alexandre Desplat (Philomena)
Thomas Newman (Saving Mr. Banks)
William Butler and Owen Pallett (Her)


Will Win: Steven Price (Gravity)
Should Win: William Butler and Owen Pallett (Her)
Should Be Nominated:
Abel Korzeniowski (Escape From Tomorrow)
Cliff Martinez (Only God Forgives)
Joe Hisashi (The Wind Rises)

* * *


Best Cinematography
Philippe Le Sourd (The Grandmaster)
Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)
Bruno Delbonnel (Inside Llewyn Davis)
Roger Deakins (Prisoners)
Phedon Papamichael (Nebraska)


Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki (Gravity)
Should Be Nominated:
Sean Bobbit (12 Years a Slave)
Luca Bigazzi (The Great Beauty)
Larry Smith (Only God Forgives)

* * *

Costume Design
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years A Slave


Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: American Hustle
Should Be Nominated:
Frankenstein’s Army
The Great Beauty

* * *


Makeup and Hairstyling
The Lone Ranger
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa


Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Should Be Nominated:
American Hustle
Evil Dead
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

* * *


Production Design
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave


Will Win: The Great Gatsby
Should Win: 12 Years a Slave
Should Be Nominated:
Frankenstein’s Army
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Pacific Rim

* * *


Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor


Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Should Be Nominated:
Elysium
Pacific Rim

* * *


Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Inside Llewyn Davis


Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Should Be Nominated:
Elysium
Pacific Rim

* * *


Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness


Will Win: Gravity
Should Win: Gravity
Should Be Nominated:
Elysium
Man of Steel
Pacific Rim

* * *


Short Film, Live Action
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem


Will Win: Helium
Should Win: Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)

* * *


Short Film, Animated
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom


Will Win: Get a Horse!
Should Win: Get a Horse!
Should Be Nominated:
The Blue Umbrella

* * *


Documentary Short Subject
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall


Will Win: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Should Win: Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

* * *

Those are my Oscar predictions and submissions! Feel free to take me to task on any of these or share any of yours in the comments below. Keep The Film Tome on an open tab all weekend for more 2013 and Oscar celebrations including a recap of tomorrow’s ceremony on Monday morning.

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